Russian Strategic Information Attack for Catastrophic Effect

Summary

Russias Strategic Information Attack (SIA) concept focuses on non-kinetic methods to disrupt or destroy adversary national critical infrastructure (NCI) during strategic conflicts. Insikt Group acknowledges that SIA is not an official term used in Russian or Western defense parlance. Based on Russian doctrine, SIAs target adversaries through "psychological attacks" (influence operations) and "technical attacks" (cyberattacks) to exact strategic damage. While SIA is almost certainly reserved for large-scale war scenarios, it shares similarities with lower-intensity cyber and information attacks already observed in Western countries, such as targets. The goal of SIA is to employ strategic non-kinetic capabilities to escalate the conflict and force adversaries into negotiations on Moscows terms by causing significant infrastructure disruptions aligned with Russias escalate to de-escalate conflict escalation management strategy.

Russian Strategic Information Attack for Catastrophic Effect

Non-kinetic warfare is emerging and evolving as a significant threat. One such tool in Russias arsenal is the SIA, a concept that blends psychological and technical tactics to disrupt and destabilize adversaries' NCI. This Insikt Group report dives into the mechanics of Russias SIA, the strategy, doctrine, and policies that frame it, its potential targets, and why Western organizations must be vigilant.

The Concept of SIA

Russias SIA concept involves employing non-kinetic methods, such as psychological attacks (influence operations) and technical attacks (cyberattacks), to damage or destroy NCI. This tactic is anchored, in concept, to Russias perception of how the United States historically used nuclear weapons in WWII to escalate the use of military means to compel its adversary to accept peace negotiations (de-escalation). The primary goal is to exact catastrophic damage to the adversary and weaken the enemys ability to sustain conflict, leading to negotiations that favor Russias terms.

In Russian doctrine, SIAs are framed by the Kremlins information confrontation strategy, which includes efforts to manipulate information systems and the publics perception. These attacks aim to undermine the target countrys political stability and NCI. Russia's view on information warfare treats cyberspace as both a battleground and a domain for strategic advantage.

Psychological Attacks in SIA

Psychological attacks focus on shaping adversaries' perceptions and eroding trust in their leadership and institutions. By disseminating true and false information or exploiting existing societal tensions, Russia seeks to create widespread chaos and unrest. In times of heightened conflict, these attacks can drive public panic, leading to political instability. For instance, Russian defense analysts propose the malicious use of artificial intelligence (MUAI) could lead to deepfake videos impersonating key leaders, further exacerbating societal concerns or divisions.

Historically, Russia has demonstrated expertise in influence operations. Soviet-era active measures aimed at destabilizing Western countries are now updated with modern techniques, including the use of AI-generated content. Russian military theorists have outlined scenarios in which information could cause societal collapse, with analysts predicting that such tactics could be used to provoke a second Civil War in the United States.

Technical Attacks in SIA

On the technical side, SIA encompasses sophisticated cyberattacks designed to disrupt or destroy NCI. These attacks could target communication systems, power grids, financial infrastructure, or government networks. In contrast to typical cyberattacks, which might cause short-term damage, strategic cyberattacks aim for long-lasting, widespread effects.

During Russias war in Ukraine which is not characterized as a large-scale war in Russias official military doctrine , cyberattacks were a major component of the Kremlins strategy. However, these attacks were focused on specific tactical objectives, rather than full-scale strategic destruction. If Russia were to initiate an SIA during a large-scale war, it would almost certainly be aimed at critical infrastructure that directly supports both civilian and military operations, causing significant damage and forcing the adversary to acquiesce to Moscows demands.

Strategic Targets: Soviet-era and Modern Targeting Methodologies

To frame Russian SIA, Insikt Group cited Soviet-era and modern Russian targeting concepts. Defector Viktor Suvorov revealed a model that divided critical infrastructure into categories such as the brain (national leadership), nervous system (national communications), heart and blood supply (national energy infrastructure), and teeth (nuclear weapons capabilities). While this model primarily applied to kinetic operations, it aligns with Russias modern cyber capabilities, where attacks could focus on these same vital systems.

Russias doctrine of escalate to de-escalate refers to the use of efforts to force an adversary to negotiate. This strategy is typically associated with Russias nuclear arsenal but applies equally to strategic cyber capabilities. By launching an SIA against NCI, Russia seeks to create enough pressure on adversary governments to achieve its geopolitical objectives without resorting to strategic kinetic means such as mass conventional or nuclear weapons strikes.

Russias modern military doctrine, Strategic Operations for the Destruction of Critically Important Targets (SODCIT), outlines a similar approach for targeting NCI in a way that limits civilian casualties while exerting pressure on national governments. The intent is to force adversaries into negotiations by threatening critical infrastructure without causing mass casualties.

The dual approach of psychological and technical attacks allows Russia to customize its targeting. In some cases, psychological attacks alonesuch as influence operationsare intended to erode trust and create enough chaos to disrupt governance. In other cases, technical attacks target an adversarys ability to communicate or distribute power. Psychological and technical attacks can also have overlapping effects, such as influence operations that undermine faith and confidence in the financial sector that coincide with technical attacks against financial networks.

Outlook

Western countries, particularly those managing critical infrastructure, must prepare for potential Russian SIAs. The risks posed by these attacks are substantial, but public and private entities can take steps to mitigate them.

Organizations need to improve cybersecurity defenses, including monitoring for signs of psychological attacks. Collaboration between governments, private enterprises, and cybersecurity experts will be crucial in identifying and mitigating these threats. Exercises and simulations, such as red teaming, can help organizations test their readiness for potential attacks. Industry leaders must consider incorporating scenarios that mirror Russias SIAs to strengthen defenses and identify vulnerabilities.

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